Three weeks ago, Kalshi traders gave a September Fed hike a 48% chance. Three weeks ago, Fed funds futures said 56%. One Kevin Warsh speech later, both climbed. On September 16, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise rates to 3.75%-4%. First hike since July 2023.
By 2pm the day of, Kalshi and CME agreed at 92-93%. The crowd got the answer right before the Fed released it.
Now the September hike is history. The real question: what did the dot plot say about October?
The vote that broke a three-year hold
The 12-0 unanimous vote was the big surprise. In July, three members had dissented wanting a hike. In September, nobody dissented against one. Warsh had the whole committee aligned.
Rate range: 3.75% to 4%. First increase since July 2023. The Fed statement called it "removing a dose of accommodation" — not the start of a hiking cycle, just an adjustment.
Markets didn't flinch at the hike itself. They flinched at the dot plot.
The dot plot nobody saw coming
Of 18 FOMC participants (Warsh declined to submit a dot), 16 projected at least one more rate hike this year. Four projected two more. Only two projected no further hikes.
The 2026 median moved from 3.8% in June to 4.1% in September. That's a 30-basis-point hawkish shift at the median. For 2027, the median moved from 3.6% to 4.1% — meaning the Fed now expects to hold higher for longer than three months ago.
Kalshi's October hike contract moved from 40% to 49% within minutes of the dot plot release. The December hike contract jumped to 87%.
What Kalshi got right (and what it missed)
Kalshi's September contract was priced at 92% going into the meeting. The outcome matched exactly. That's a textbook calibration win — Kalshi said "very likely," the Fed delivered.
But Kalshi missed the dot plot magnitude. Before the meeting, Kalshi's "two or more hikes by December" contract was priced at 37%. By market close September 17, it had moved to 56%. That's a 19-point correction in one day.
The signal: Kalshi captured the decision but underpriced the hawkish projections. For traders, that is a known pattern — the market reads the headline fast and the SEP slow.
What the crowd is getting wrong about October
Most retail traders think September was the main event. The committee will now rest, right?
The dot plot and Warsh's press conference say otherwise. Warsh explicitly refused "one and done" framing. His exact phrase: "Inflation is too high and has been for too long." That's not someone finished with hikes.
Kalshi's current pricing:
- October 28 hike: 49%
- December 10 hike: 87%
- At least one more 2026 hike: 93%
Combine those three numbers. The market is saying "a hike is very likely, we just don't know which meeting." That's actually a difficult trade to position. The event is almost certain. The timing is almost random.
What this means for the Thai baht
The USD/THB rate was 33.09 on August 5. Today it sits closer to 33.80. That 71-point drop happened mostly in anticipation of the September hike.
If the Fed hikes again at October 28, add another 50-80 basis points to that drop. The baht could test 34.50 before year-end. If the Fed waits for December, the move drags out but same direction.
For Thai exporters, every 10 satang of baht depreciation adds roughly ฿7 billion to annual export revenue. For importers, every 10 satang costs about the same.
The BoT holds at 1% — as we covered before the August 13 MPC. That's not changing anytime soon. The widening US-Thai yield gap drives capital out of Thailand. Watch the next MPC October 8 for any defensive move.
What Juno lets you do
Juno's rate-decision markets price exactly these scenarios in real time. October 28 FOMC. December 10 FOMC. BoT October 8. You see the probabilities move with every piece of fresh data, the same way Kalshi traders in New York see them.
Watching is free. Trading is a skill you build with small positions, calibrated forecasts, and a track record.
The reframe
Kalshi called the September hike at 92% and was right. The Fed just told the world another hike is coming — the market will spend the next six weeks figuring out whether that happens October 28 or December 10. Watch the pricing move. That's where the information is.