How to Read a Fed Statement Like a Trader
One word — 'some' — moved $9 trillion in 2018. Patient. Accommodative. Transitory. Symmetric. The 5 phrases the Fed uses to signal without committing.
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Manifold: Which Prediction Market Should You Actually Use?
Polymarket: $9B volume, crypto, no US. Kalshi: regulated, US-only, on Robinhood. Manifold: 100k+ markets, play money. The honest buyer's guide.
What the Markets Say About a 2026 Recession (Spoiler: They Disagree)
Polymarket: 18%. Kalshi: 21%. Conference Board: 36%. Yield curve: re-inverted last week. Five answers to one question. Which one to trust.
The 2026 Forecasts That Got It Right (And Wrong) at the Halfway Mark
S&P at 6,089 vs consensus 6,634. Recession that didn't arrive. The Fed cut path that's late. A mid-year scoreboard nobody publishes.
How to Think in Probabilities (Without Being Insufferable)
A poker pro's framework for making better decisions. Outcome quality isn't decision quality. Ranges beat point estimates. Skip the base rate and you're broken.
Fed Rate Decision Forecast: What the Markets See That Strategists Miss
Fed cut 23 times in 25 years. Strategists predicted 3 in advance. What Fed funds futures and Polymarket say about the next move.
How to Forecast Better: 7 Habits of Superforecasters
Tetlock tracked 28,000 predictions. 2% beat the chimp. Here are the 7 learnable habits that separated them.
Wall Street's S&P Year-End Targets Miss By 14% On Average
Bloomberg surveys 20 strategists every December. Since 2000 the consensus has missed by 14%. The scoreboard nobody publishes.
Why Currency Forecasts Are Worse Than a Coin Flip
In 1983 a paper proved bank FX forecasts lose to a random walk. Forty years later, they still do. Here's why and what works instead.