Prediction Market Accuracy: The Real Data (2026 Guide)
How accurate are prediction markets really? Brier scores, platform comparisons, famous wins and misses — the complete 2026 accuracy guide with data.
Election Officials vs Prediction Markets — The Trust Problem Nobody Prepared For
LA County election chief Dean Logan has a problem: when prediction markets are wrong, voters cry fraud. 48 hours of conspiracy theories. This is the new election integrity crisis.
Dan Rogalski Made $600K Trading Midterms. Here's the One Habit That Explains It.
24-year-old Seattle software engineer ranks 20th on Kalshi's election leaderboard. $600K in 18 months. One habit explains everything — and it's not what you think.
$750 Million on the Midterms — The First Prediction-Market Election
CNN calls 2026 the first prediction-market election. $750M in combined volume on Kalshi + Polymarket, 1,408 open markets, campaigns watching odds like stock tickers.
Fed Hiked. Kalshi Called It at 92%. What the Dot Plot Tells Us About October.
Fed voted 12-0 to hike to 3.75-4% on Sept 16. Kalshi called it at 92%. The dot plot now says another hike is almost certain by December.
How to Trade Prediction Markets: The 5-Step Beginner Framework
The exact 5-step framework the profitable 3% of prediction market traders use. Real example, real fees, real tools. Updated Sept 2026.
The CFTC Mention-Markets Probe — What Coinbase's CEO Started
Brian Armstrong manipulated a Kalshi mention market on live earnings 9 months ago. Now the CFTC is running a formal probe.
Polymarket Hired a 69-Year-Old CFO. That's the Story.
Polymarket's first CFO is 41 years older than the founder. That's not a resume note. That's an IPO signal.
Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket by $29 Billion — The August Numbers Nobody Saw Coming
August 2026: Kalshi $37.17B vs Polymarket $8.16B. First monthly industry decline in a year. The prediction market gold rush just chose a winner.