Prediction markets explained — how they work, accuracy data, platforms, risks, and how to start. Complete 2026 guide.

Kalshi vs Polymarket — full comparison of fees, markets, liquidity, accuracy, and access. Updated August 2026 with latest data.

Comply, Solidus, Wharton, Polymarket Institute. Six months ago, prediction markets were Wild West. Now they're plumbing.

As of August 5, Polymarket says 87% chance Democrats retake the House. Every poll shifted the market same way.

Three FOMC dissents. Warsh refusing forward guidance. Kalshi's September rate-hike contract just hit 59%.

LBS + Yale analyzed $13.76B of Polymarket trades. Only 3% of traders drive nearly all the price discovery.

October 2025: Polymarket was worth $9B. August 2026: $20B. Ten months, one asset class invented in public.

22 straight meetings at 1%. What's actually different in August 13. Three scenarios. Five data points to watch. The trade the consensus is missing.

Kalshi sued in 12+ states. CFTC sued 9 states. Minnesota bans Aug 1. Third Circuit for Kalshi, Sixth Circuit against. Supreme Court is next.