80% of Kalshi is sports. Politics collapsed. Rothera launched as a sportsbook. The industry Robin Hanson envisioned is not the industry we got.

Kalshi $31.5B, Polymarket $10.8B, Rothera $2B in a single month. $37B in combined valuations. NYSE's parent invested $600M. The category graduated.

Two weeks after our July 9 post, the market resolved YES. Casualties, ceasefire, and the trades Thai investors could have made if they'd read the price.

The MrBeast editor. Congressional candidates betting on themselves. The Iranian death market. 5 cases that changed how you should trade prediction markets in 2026.

UMA voting, Chainlink data feeds, Kalshi expert panels. Three approaches to the oracle problem, three sets of trade-offs, and how to know which one you're trusting.

World launched July 1 on Solana, embedded in Phantom wallet. Chainlink oracles, no UMA voting. The most credible Polymarket challenger since Kalshi.

In January 2025 the TCSD classified Polymarket as illegal gambling under a 1935 law. The full story, what Thai users can still do, and where the market goes.

Polymarket's Thailand-Cambodia contract sits at 94%. What that means, what could move it, and why Thai citizens can't trade on their own country's fate.

Smart contracts, oracle disputes, market makers, settlement layer. The under-the-hood walkthrough of a 47-cent prediction market contract.