What Polymarket Already Knows About the 2026 US Midterms
Democrats 81% for the House. Republicans 56% for the Senate. $15.9M traded. The 4 races that decide it, and why it matters for emerging markets.
How Asian Tourism Is Defying Every 2026 Forecast (Thailand as Case Study)
15.4M visitors through June 20. TAT cut forecast from 35.5M to 30-34M. China weak, India and Russia surging. Why every forecaster has been wrong.
The June 2026 FOMC Recap: What the Markets Got Right (And Where They Were Surprised)
Held at 3.50-3.75% unanimously. Dot plot flipped from cuts to hikes. Polymarket priced 'zero cuts' at 79.8% before the meeting. Warsh's first signal.
How to Start a Forecasting Journal (Without Being a Nerd About It)
6 columns, 10 minutes a week, 1 year. The simplest discipline in decision-making — and the one almost nobody does. The 5-minute setup that beats 95% of analysts.
The 5 Predictions That Made or Cost Traders the Most in H1 2026
Fed pivot from cuts to hikes. Bitcoin half-right. Recession that didn't arrive. The midterm market call. Iran oil spike. The 5 trades that defined H1 2026.
How to Read a Fed Statement Like a Trader
One word — 'some' — moved $9 trillion in 2018. Patient. Accommodative. Transitory. Symmetric. The 5 phrases the Fed uses to signal without committing.
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Manifold: Which Prediction Market Should You Actually Use?
Polymarket: $9B volume, crypto, no US. Kalshi: regulated, US-only, on Robinhood. Manifold: 100k+ markets, play money. The honest buyer's guide.
What the Markets Say About a 2026 Recession (Spoiler: They Disagree)
Polymarket: 18%. Kalshi: 21%. Conference Board: 36%. Yield curve: re-inverted last week. Five answers to one question. Which one to trust.
The 2026 Forecasts That Got It Right (And Wrong) at the Halfway Mark
S&P at 6,089 vs consensus 6,634. Recession that didn't arrive. The Fed cut path that's late. A mid-year scoreboard nobody publishes.