Polymarket vs Pollsters: How 2024 Crushed the Old Forecasting Model
On Election Day 2024, the NYT needle said toss-up. Polymarket said 92% Trump. The market was right. Here's why.
Why Economic Forecasts Fail (And What Actually Beats Them)
The IMF made 469 recession forecasts since 1992. It got 4 right. The three crises that broke every model, and what beats them.
What is a Prediction Market? A Beginner's Guide for 2026
A 65% Trump price three weeks before the polls caught up. How prediction markets work, why they beat polls, and where they're going next.
The 787 Strangers Who Beat Every Expert in the Room
A 1906 ox, 787 strangers, and a 1-pound miss. The forgotten experiment that explains why Thai GDP forecasts keep missing — and what to trust instead.
How $5 Bets at the University of Iowa Beat Every Major Poll in 1988
In 1988, three economics professors set up a market with $5 stakes. It outperformed Gallup, the New York Times, and CNN. The story of how prediction markets actually started.
Calibration in 5 Minutes a Day: How to Train Yourself to Forecast Like a Superforecaster
The best forecasters in the world don't have higher IQs. They have a daily habit. Here's the habit, the template, and the math that proves it works.
What 47¢ Actually Means: A Primer on Reading a Prediction Market
If you can read a price, you can read a probability. The whole skill is in understanding that 47¢ is not a guess, a hope, or a hot take — it's an aggregate.
How a Currency Price Moves in Three Seconds
When the Fed announces, the dollar moves before the words finish. Not because of magic — because of mechanism. A primer on how price discovery actually works.
Why Robinhood's Pre-Launch Was More Important Than Its Launch
Robinhood had 1 million sign-ups before its app went live. The mechanism wasn't marketing — it was scarcity engineered into a waitlist. Juno is doing the same thing. Here's why it works.