How to Think in Probabilities (Without Being Insufferable)
A poker pro's framework for making better decisions. Outcome quality isn't decision quality. Ranges beat point estimates. Skip the base rate and you're broken.
Fed Rate Decision Forecast: What the Markets See That Strategists Miss
Fed cut 23 times in 25 years. Strategists predicted 3 in advance. What Fed funds futures and Polymarket say about the next move.
How to Forecast Better: 7 Habits of Superforecasters
Tetlock tracked 28,000 predictions. 2% beat the chimp. Here are the 7 learnable habits that separated them.
Wall Street's S&P Year-End Targets Miss By 14% On Average
Bloomberg surveys 20 strategists every December. Since 2000 the consensus has missed by 14%. The scoreboard nobody publishes.
Why Currency Forecasts Are Worse Than a Coin Flip
In 1983 a paper proved bank FX forecasts lose to a random walk. Forty years later, they still do. Here's why and what works instead.
Polymarket vs Pollsters: How 2024 Crushed the Old Forecasting Model
On Election Day 2024, the NYT needle said toss-up. Polymarket said 92% Trump. The market was right. Here's why.
Why Economic Forecasts Fail (And What Actually Beats Them)
The IMF made 469 recession forecasts since 1992. It got 4 right. The three crises that broke every model, and what beats them.
What is a Prediction Market? A Beginner's Guide for 2026
A 65% Trump price three weeks before the polls caught up. How prediction markets work, why they beat polls, and where they're going next.
The 787 Strangers Who Beat Every Expert in the Room
A 1906 ox, 787 strangers, and a 1-pound miss. The forgotten experiment that explains why Thai GDP forecasts keep missing — and what to trust instead.