Before he died in March 2024, Kahneman left a final insight: confidence is not accuracy. It's also the entire reason prediction markets beat experts.

The SET ended 2024 below where it started. Asia Plus, KGI, Bualuang, Phillip — none of the big year-end targets came close. Why local brokers herd, and what to read instead.

BTC ended 2023 at $42,265. By December 2024, it touched $108,000. Polymarket priced this 8 months before Goldman, JPM, or Bernstein moved their targets.

Twelve major banks predicted gold's 2024 close. Every single one was wrong. The crowd's prediction market beat them by 18%. Here's why.

In a real forecasting tournament, 2,800 volunteers with Google beat CIA analysts with classified intel by 30%. The edge wasn't IQ. It was a habit.

Thailand's SET Index has surged from a 2025 low of 1,054 to nearly 1,500 — but a Middle East energy crisis, US tariff escalation, and GDP forecasts slashed to 1.3% threaten the recovery. A probability-weighted analysis.

The Bank of Thailand meets April 29 after its surprise cut to 1% in February. With Middle East tensions, an MSCI rebalance in May, and growth at just 1.5%, here's what forecasters expect for Thai rates, the baht, and the SET Index.

Think about the last time you saw an election poll or an economic forecast. Was it accurate? Often — it wasn’t. Traditional forecasting has