The 2026 Forecasts That Got It Right (And Wrong) at the Halfway Mark
S&P at 6,089 vs consensus 6,634. Recession that didn't arrive. The Fed cut path that's late. A mid-year scoreboard nobody publishes.
How to Think in Probabilities (Without Being Insufferable)
A poker pro's framework for making better decisions. Outcome quality isn't decision quality. Ranges beat point estimates. Skip the base rate and you're broken.
Fed Rate Decision Forecast: What the Markets See That Strategists Miss
Fed cut 23 times in 25 years. Strategists predicted 3 in advance. What Fed funds futures and Polymarket say about the next move.
How to Forecast Better: 7 Habits of Superforecasters
Tetlock tracked 28,000 predictions. 2% beat the chimp. Here are the 7 learnable habits that separated them.
Wall Street's S&P Year-End Targets Miss By 14% On Average
Bloomberg surveys 20 strategists every December. Since 2000 the consensus has missed by 14%. The scoreboard nobody publishes.
Why Currency Forecasts Are Worse Than a Coin Flip
In 1983 a paper proved bank FX forecasts lose to a random walk. Forty years later, they still do. Here's why and what works instead.
Polymarket vs Pollsters: How 2024 Crushed the Old Forecasting Model
On Election Day 2024, the NYT needle said toss-up. Polymarket said 92% Trump. The market was right. Here's why.
Why Economic Forecasts Fail (And What Actually Beats Them)
The IMF made 469 recession forecasts since 1992. It got 4 right. The three crises that broke every model, and what beats them.
What is a Prediction Market? A Beginner's Guide for 2026
A 65% Trump price three weeks before the polls caught up. How prediction markets work, why they beat polls, and where they're going next.