The 787 Strangers Who Beat Every Expert in the Room
A 1906 ox, 787 strangers, and a 1-pound miss. The forgotten experiment that explains why Thai GDP forecasts keep missing — and what to trust instead.
How $5 Bets at the University of Iowa Beat Every Major Poll in 1988
In 1988, three economics professors set up a market with $5 stakes. It outperformed Gallup, the New York Times, and CNN. The story of how prediction markets actually started.
Calibration in 5 Minutes a Day: How to Train Yourself to Forecast Like a Superforecaster
The best forecasters in the world don't have higher IQs. They have a daily habit. Here's the habit, the template, and the math that proves it works.
What 47¢ Actually Means: A Primer on Reading a Prediction Market
If you can read a price, you can read a probability. The whole skill is in understanding that 47¢ is not a guess, a hope, or a hot take — it's an aggregate.
How a Currency Price Moves in Three Seconds
When the Fed announces, the dollar moves before the words finish. Not because of magic — because of mechanism. A primer on how price discovery actually works.
Why Robinhood's Pre-Launch Was More Important Than Its Launch
Robinhood had 1 million sign-ups before its app went live. The mechanism wasn't marketing — it was scarcity engineered into a waitlist. Juno is doing the same thing. Here's why it works.
Daniel Kahneman's Last Lesson Was Also His Most Useful
Before he died in March 2024, Kahneman left a final insight: confidence is not accuracy. It's also the entire reason prediction markets beat experts.
Every Major Thai Broker Was Bullish on the SET in 2024. The Index Closed Down.
The SET ended 2024 below where it started. Asia Plus, KGI, Bualuang, Phillip — none of the big year-end targets came close. Why local brokers herd, and what to read instead.
Bitcoin Closed 2024 Up 122%. Wall Street Forecasted Half That.
BTC ended 2023 at $42,265. By December 2024, it touched $108,000. Polymarket priced this 8 months before Goldman, JPM, or Bernstein moved their targets.