Sports Is Eating Prediction Markets (And Kalshi Is Winning)
80% of Kalshi is sports. Politics collapsed. Rothera launched as a sportsbook. The industry Robin Hanson envisioned is not the industry we got.
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The $44.8 Billion Month: How the World Cup Turned Prediction Markets Into Wall Street
Kalshi $31.5B, Polymarket $10.8B, Rothera $2B in a single month. $37B in combined valuations. NYSE's parent invested $600M. The category graduated.
The 94% Polymarket Call on Thailand-Cambodia — What Actually Happened
Two weeks after our July 9 post, the market resolved YES. Casualties, ceasefire, and the trades Thai investors could have made if they'd read the price.
Manipulation, Insider Trading & the 2026 Prediction Market Trust Reckoning
The MrBeast editor. Congressional candidates betting on themselves. The Iranian death market. 5 cases that changed how you should trade prediction markets in 2026.
The Oracle Wars: How Prediction Markets Decide What's True
UMA voting, Chainlink data feeds, Kalshi expert panels. Three approaches to the oracle problem, three sets of trade-offs, and how to know which one you're trusting.
The Solana Prediction Market That Just Launched to 20 Million Users
World launched July 1 on Solana, embedded in Phantom wallet. Chainlink oracles, no UMA voting. The most credible Polymarket challenger since Kalshi.